Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta is quietly developing a prediction markets app that could challenge industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a report.
Zuckerberg recently tasked a small team inside Meta with building the experimental app, which is internally known as “Arena,” the New York Times reported, citing two employees familiar with the matter.
The standalone smartphone app would allow users to make predictions on everything from sports and politics to major news events, according to the report.
Unlike existing prediction markets that allow users to wager real money, Arena is expected to initially rely on a video game-style points system, though Meta has not ruled out eventually incorporating real-money betting, one person familiar with the plans told the Times.
The app would operate independently from Meta’s flagship platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, according to the report.
Meta is reportedly hoping to leverage its massive audience to drive adoption of the new service. More than 3.5 billion people use at least one of the company’s apps daily.
The effort is said to be part of a broader push by Zuckerberg to identify emerging online behaviors and build new products around them as growth on Meta’s established platforms matures.
The Post has sought comment from Meta.
Arena is one of several experimental projects currently under development, according to the report. Another initiative, dubbed “Meta Photos,” is said to focus on creating new forms of media using artificial intelligence.
Prediction markets have surged in popularity over the past two years, drawing users who place bets on outcomes ranging from election results and sporting events to entertainment awards and economic developments.
The sector has become a lucrative business. According to the newspaper, prediction-market operators handled more than $50 billion in trades last year, with volume already exceeding $130 billion this year.
The boom has attracted interest from traditional gambling operators, cryptocurrency firms and media companies eager to tap into the growing market.
At the same time, the industry has faced increased regulatory scrutiny amid concerns that traders could exploit nonpublic information to profit from bets tied to real-world events.
Meta is no stranger to the concept.
The company launched a prediction app called Forecast in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing users to make forecasts about future events using a points-based system.
Meta ultimately shut down the service in 2022.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
