On April 3, the Philadelphia Flyers were 300/1 to win the Stanley Cup. They had lost consecutive games to the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings, two teams they were battling with in the playoff race, and put themselves in a situation where they likely had to win six of their last seven games to get into the postseason.
Philadelphia was written off. And fans were beginning to sour on the Keith Jones-Daniel Briere regime, which has continued to preach patience to a market that is not known for stoicism.
All is forgiven now.
Not only did the Flyers rhyme off six wins in their last seven games of the regular season in stunning fashion, but they’ve won their first two playoff games on the road, putting themselves two victories away from a sweep of their in-state rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Philadelphia is -425 to advance to Round 2 for the first time since 2020, and they are now down to 28/1 to win the Stanley Cup.
The market clearly believes that there is some merit to what the Flyers are doing, and the numbers back up that sentiment.
While the Flyers do have some dynamic offensive players like Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov, and Travis Konecny, this roster is not built to outscore opponents, and it was clear that Rick Tocchet’s job was to get his young charges to buy into a pragmatic, defensive style of play.
It took some time for Philadelphia to get it right, but the team’s commitment to tidying things up in its own zone is now paying dividends. The Flyers have held the Penguins, the third-highest scoring team in the NHL this season, to just two goals — and only one at even strength — through six periods.
Breakout goaltender Dan Vladar has been steady in the blue paint and recorded his first playoff shutout in Game 2, but his colleagues deserve as much credit as their netminder for staking the Flyers to this 2-0 series lead.
Betting on the NHL?
Vladar has answered when called upon, but his workload could hardly be lighter. Philadelphia has held Pittsburgh to just 44 shots on goal and 19 high-danger scoring chances through the first two contests.
The Flyers are not creating bushels of scoring chances themselves, but they are doing something that is giving the Penguins fits. Philadelphia is clogging the zone with a 1-1-3 defensive posture, opting to turn every shift into a rock fight.
The Penguins are a team built to play on the front foot and use their speed and offensive sizzle to break things open, but they look bereft of answers in these tight-checking contests. By taking the flow out of the game, the Flyers have robbed the Pens of their biggest strength, and Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to have an adequate plan B.
You need to win four games to advance, and recency bias is always amplified in the playoffs, but it’s hard not to be swept up by what Philadelphia is doing in this series. And it’s not like the bookmakers are charging a “momentum premium” on the Flyers for Game 3. The line for Wednesday night opened as a pick’em, perhaps because there will be plenty of bettors who back Sidney Crosby and the Penguins in a must-win spot.
Playing their first playoff game in Philadelphia since 2018, and riding high after eight wins in their last nine games, I’ll gladly back the Flyers as a short favorite in Game 3. And if you think there’s more magic in this team than just a trip to the second round at the expense of their bitter rivals, you may want to consider Vladar’s long-shot odds (75/1, bet365) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
The Play: Flyers moneyline (-114, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
