The Knicks vs. Hawks series seems to be drawing the most predictions for a potential upset from pundits across the sports landscape. In a way, it makes sense.
No one expects the top two seeds in either conference to have much trouble getting through to the next round. The Rockets are favorites in the series against the severely injured Lakers despite Los Angeles having the home-court advantage.
The Raptors appear to be the weakest team in the East and are paired with the Cavaliers. The Timberwolves drew the Nuggets who have the potential MVP winner.
The Knicks have earned a reputation as the NBA’s Jekyll and Hyde: They can beat the Nuggets by 39 points in Denver on Friday, then look like they forgot how to play on both ends of the floor in losses to the Los Angeles teams on Sunday and Monday.
It’s the main reason why sportsbooks have the Knicks listed as the smallest favorites to win a first round series. DraftKings has the Knicks as -275 favorites to win the series with the Hawks listed as +250 underdogs.
The perception around the Knicks should offer some value for bettors and there are a few angles that stand out.
First, let’s look at the matchup between the two teams. The Knicks finished the season with the fourth-best record in the NBA in home games (30-10) and their 10th loss at home came in the final game of the season when their bench players got almost all of the minutes.
The Hawks, for all their spunk, haven’t exactly been road Warriors.
For the season they have a 23-19 record away from home. Some of the wins against good teams include the Knicks without Karl-Anthony Towns, the Nuggets without Nikola Jokic, the Pistons without Cade Cunningham and the Celtics before Jayson Tatum’s return. Notice a trend?
There’s certainly the rivalry aspect between the two franchises after they met in the playoffs in 2021, but Trae Young was the central figure in that feud and he’s no longer on the Hawks. In fact, Onyeka Okongwu and Mitchell Robinson are the only two players who were on either roster for that series.
The Knicks have one of the most electric crowds in the NBA and tend to play their best at Madison Square Garden. DraftKings is offering a prop for teams to go undefeated at home in a series and the Knicks are +165, which is great value for a team that will be favored in each home game.
There’s another specialty prop that ties into one of the Knicks’ most common traits.
The Knicks have a tendency to fall behind in games and have trailed by at least 15 points at the end of a quarter in three of their wins this season. That tendency led to some amazing finishes this season and some epic comebacks in the playoffs last season.
DraftKings is offering a prop that either team falls behind by 20 points and wins the game at +380. That certainly feels like a worthwhile play for a team that seems most comfortable with its back against the wall.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
