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March Madness 2026 Sweet 16 picks, odds, best bets Friday

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Alex Karaban and Braylon Mullins high-five during a UConn game.
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UConn and Michigan State meet in a Sweet 16 matchup on Friday between blue bloods with legendary coaches. 

Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley’s clubs couldn’t be rated any closer, ranking 9th and 10th overall, respectively, by KenPom coming into the game. 

Oddsmakers bear that out, essentially pegging this game as a toss-up with the Huskies favored by 1.5 points for this game in Washington, D.C.

If UConn wants to make another Elite Eight appearance, it’ll need to lean heavily on one of its steadiest veterans, Alex Karaban, who appears to be having a mini-breakout during this tournament run.

Karaban has had two of the best games of his college career during March Madness this year, dropping 22 points against Furman in the Round of 64 before erupting for a career-high 27 against UCLA.

He took exactly 16 shots in both games, which is the second-most he’s had in a game this season, suggesting that either Karaban or the team as a whole is looking to get him more involved in the offense. 

Karaban’s production from deep has been particularly impressive, hitting four baskets from behind the line in each contest.

The Spartans have been the 13th-best defense in college basketball this season, but Karaban has shown he can still fill it up against the top opponents. 


UConn’s Alex Karaban, left, and Braylon Mullins celebrate during the second half against UCLA in the second round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Sunday, March 22, 2026, in Philadelphia. AP

In three games against St. John’s this season, Karaban averaged 13.7 points. 

Against Texas and Florida in the non-conference slate, he dropped 18 and 13 points, respectively. 


Betting on College Basketball?


Oddsmakers still aren’t expecting much from Karaban on Friday, despite this, setting his Over/Under at just 12.5 points. 

Bet on Karaban’s leap being real. 

The play: Alex Karaban Over 12.5 points (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]

Tags: bettingCollege Basketballcollege basketball bettingmarch madnessmarch madness 2026michigan state spartansncaa tournamentSportssports bettingSports Picksuconn huskies
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