The last Cinderella left in the Dance, No. 11 Texas, faces No. 2 Purdue to kickstart Sweet 16 action in March Madness 2026.
Sean Miller and the Longhorns kept their upset run alive in the round of 32, defeating No. 3 Gonzaga, 74-68, thanks to a game-sealing 3-pointer from former Boilermaker Camden Heide.
Purdue, meanwhile, handled business against Jai Lucas and gritty No. 7 Miami, earning a 10-point victory to secure its third straight trip to the Sweet 16.
This SEC vs. Big Ten showdown is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS. The winner moves on to the West Region final to face either No. 1 Arizona or No. 4 Arkansas.
Matt Painter and Purdue enter as 6.5-point favorites over Texas, with the Over/Under set at 148.5 total points on bet365 Sportsbook.
Texas vs. Purdue prediction, best bet
Texas is the lowest-ranked team remaining in the field per the latest KenPom rankings, sitting at 31.
However, their revamped defense and clutch performances from Jordan Pope, Matas Vokietaitis and leading scorer Dylan Swain have guided them to this stage.
The Longhorns were on the bubble and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak, including a first-round exit from the SEC tournament.
During this period, the team’s defensive struggles were evident, allowing opponents an average of 76.8 points per game while shooting 36 percent from 3-point range.
Their defense has flipped the script in March Madness, holding opponents to an average of just 68.3 points through three games and limiting them to only 25.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
They were able to absorb AJ Dybantsa’s 35 points and contained the Zags’ offense to shoot sub-50% from the field.
To keep their underdog status rolling, Texas will need another hallmark effort against Braden Smith and the Boilermakers.
Purdue’s steady offense ranks first in KenPom, boasting the nation’s best adjusted efficiency of 131.6. That accounted for an ultra-efficient 53 percent from the field, including 8-of-14 from beyond the arc and 95 percent from the free throw line in the second round.
The Boilermaker’s starting five is highly experienced, featuring seniors Trey Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff, sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer, lone underclassman C.J. Cox and mainstay facilitator Smith.
The preseason AP No. 1 has won six consecutive games, a streak that includes an upset victory over Michigan in the conference championship contest.
The team has posted a 4-2 record against the spread during this stretch.
Betting on College Basketball?
Since the 1984-85 season, NCAA data shows that 23 out of 40 preseason No. 1 teams — approximately 57.5 percent — have advanced to the Elite Eight.
The Longhorns’ improbable run could come to an end Thursday as Purdue’s defense has the necessary size to contain Vokietaitis inside, and Smith triumphs over Pope in a vital point guard matchup.
Given these advantages, coupled with the Boilermakers’ recent deep tournament runs, I like them to cover the 5.5-point alternate spread, which can be played up to 7.5.
The Play: Purdue -5.5 (-135, BetMGM) | Purdue to win by 6-10 points (+340, BetRivers)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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