The bookies are setting a high bar for New York baseball in 2026.
The Yankees are the second choice behind the Dodgers to win the World Series at 10/1, and they’re favored to claim both the American League pennant and the AL East. Aaron Judge sits atop the MVP market, as usual.
The Mets aren’t far behind.
They’re the consensus favorites in the NL East and the second favorites to win the pennant. At 14/1, they’re lumped in with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Phillies in the outright market.
Both clubs boast a win total of 90.5, tied for the second-most behind the two-time defending champions.
A Subway Series in the Fall Classic is priced at just 35/1.
Those expectations should excite local fans, but they don’t leave much value on either team.
If you’re looking to bet the Yankees or Mets, patience is likely the better play. Both teams are in competitive divisions, and there’s a good chance these prices drift as the season unfolds.
There may not be much upside in betting on either the Pinstripes or the Amazins outright, but there are some prop bets with local flavor that provide significant upside.
Freddy Peralta to lead the MLB in wins (40/1, BetMGM)
This price is a bit of a head-scratcher. Peralta led the National League in wins (17) as a member of the overachieving Brewers in 2025, and is in a great spot to replicate, if not improve, that total with the Mets.
It’s not just his situation that gives this bet serious legs, but it’s also Peralta’s profile. He is a rare breed these days. A starting pitcher who shows up to work every five days. Imagine that.
Only eight pitchers have logged more innings than Peralta since 2023, and only one (Zac Gallen) has notched more wins than the new Mets ace in that span.
Quantity is crucial here, but it means nothing without quality. Luckily, Peralta delivers on both accounts. The 29-year-old finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2025 thanks to a 2.70 ERA and 28.2 strikeout rate in 33 starts.
If he brings that form with him to Flushing, he’ll have every chance of hitting the 20-win mark for the first time in his career.
Did I mention it’s a contract year for Peralta?
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Aaron Judge to lead the MLB in hits (55/1, DraftKings)
It’s usually impossible to find real betting upside on Aaron Judge, but he is flying way under the radar in this market.
Since Judge is known for his prodigious power, his ability to make contact is often overlooked. And for that reason, you’re getting a massive discount on one of the best hitters in baseball in a market that is, well, all about hitting.
Only four players (Bobby Witt Jr., Luis Arraez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Shohei Ohtani) have more hits than Judge over the last two seasons, and all four of them are shorter than 20/1 in this market. And three of them, Witt Jr., Arraez, and Guerrero Jr., are shorter than 8/1.
Going back even further, Judge has finished inside the top-10 in hits in three of the last four seasons, and the only time he failed to hit that threshold (2023) was mainly because of injury.
If you throw out that 2023 campaign, he’s averaged 178.6 hits in each of his last three “healthy” seasons. Judge will likely need to tick that number up a tad to have a shot against the favorites, but are we seriously doubting No. 99’s ability to pick up a dozen more hits over a full season?
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
