Alijah Arenas should help USC make a move for March Madness

Just last week, Eric Musselman looked like a defeated man.

As he met with reporters after his team’s horrific loss to Northwestern last week, the USC basketball coach referenced one deficiency after another. His face wore a pained expression as he ticked them off.

Terrible three-point and free-throw shooting. A pair of blown defensive coverages by guard Ezra Ausar. Sixth-year senior Chad Baker-Mazara fouled out in only 14 minutes. An inability to find five players worthy of taking the court together amid a series of injuries.

At that point, the Trojans were trending toward going from a surprise Big Ten team to a disappointment, their 12-1 start a distant memory after four losses in six games.

“How much does it hurt? How much does it matter?” Musselman said when asked about his message to his team. “I mean, that’s all — I can’t answer any of that. I know how much sleep I’m going to get tonight, but I’m not out there, so there was definitely not enough hurt after the last game” against Purdue.

What happened next brought some much-needed elation.

Practically everything that went wrong against the Wildcats went right against Wisconsin.

Ausur didn’t blow critical defensive assignments. Baker-Mazara scored 29 points without fouling out. The Trojans played cohesively, allowing them to withstand a terrible shooting night from long range.

Three days later, USC nearly completed a road sweep after coming back from 17 points down against Iowa before falling short in the final seconds. It was another glimpse of what this team might be able to do in March if it pulls everything together.

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Here’s a look at where the Trojans stand and what they need to do to finish the season on the upswing:

NCAA tournament status

Safely in at the moment, there remains plenty of work to do.

A critical stretch comes next month, when USC faces Illinois and Oregon at home followed by a road game against rival UCLA and a home game against Nebraska. Winning three of those four games would significantly enhance the team’s postseason resume.

The Trojans’ lack of eye-catching nonconference victories — Seton Hall and Arizona State don’t qualify — will require a finish above .500 in the Big Ten. If that happens, consider them a lock for their first NCAA tournament berth since 2023.

Biggest revelation

Sophomore forward Jacob Cofie has thrived in a three-and-D role while also leading the team in rebounding.

His length as a 6-foot-9 wing player has made him hard to defend and his production is up across the board from his freshman season at Virginia. He’s notched team highs with three double-doubles and four games with 10 or more rebounds.

Biggest disappointment

Guard Rodney Rice’s season-ending shoulder injury in late November did more than deprive the Trojans of their leading scorer.

His absence had a cascading effect, forcing everyone else to shift into new roles while trying to make up for the loss of such a gifted offensive player. Even with Rice’s minutes being divvied up among others, the team has only two players — Baker-Mazara and Ausar — averaging double figures in points. 

Biggest issue

Consistency is an ongoing concern.

The loss of Rice has been compounded by injuries to a handful of other players. There’s also been the delayed start to the season of freshman Alijah Arenas, who made his college debut last week after recovering from a summer knee injury.

Musselman has been forced to roll out a hodgepodge of lineups based on availability, starting 11 different players. A few of them alluded to bad practice habits on the team after the loss to Northwestern.

It hasn’t been a formula for sustained success over the last month.

Season ceiling

Getting past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is going to require a lot of things coming together.

Keeping everyone healthy would be a great place to start. That would allow Musselman to solidify his lineup and give his players more defined roles.

Arenas rounding into form after such a long layoff could elevate this team given his pedigree as a five-star high school prospect and the son of three-time NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas.