Picks for AFC, NFC playoff tilts

The Rams will be playing their third road playoff game in 16 days. They have traveled from L.A. to Charlotte to L.A. to Chicago to L.A. and, finally, up the West Coast to Seattle.

The Seahawks have been home that whole time and have played just one game, a rout of the 49ers that was basically decided on Rashid Shaheed’s touchdown return on the opening kickoff.

Seattle also played Saturday, giving them an extra day compared to the Rams-Bears game Sunday.

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, teams with the rest advantage are 27-17 (straight-up) SU in the conference championship since the 2003-04 season, including 21-7 SU at home.

And here’s a factoid that’s so unique there’s not even a trend for it: The Rams are the first team in the Super Bowl era to advance to a conference championship after failing to cover in its first two playoff games.

Rams (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS | Under 46.5

So why am I selecting the Rams? I’m looking at three key areas:

Matthew Stafford: The Rams’ quarterback is a Super Bowl winner and is the slight favorite to beat out Drake Maye for the regular-season MVP award. He has a fully healthy offensive arsenal — including Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at wide receiver, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum in the backfield. The offensive line is full of players who rank in the top 10 in the NFL at their positions.

Sam Darnold: Seattle’s quarterback has an oblique injury, and the coaches have been limiting his throws in practice. He had the same problem last week, but the Seahawks played that entire game from in front, and the decimated 49ers defense was never able to put him in harm’s way.

Last season, Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 regular season, but in the first playoff game, he was sacked nine times by the Rams in a 29-7 Los Angeles win.

The 49ers couldn’t get after him, but the Rams can.

Other Seahawks injuries: With Darnold a bit gimpy, Seattle might like to rely on the ground game, but Zach Charbonnet is not there to pick up for Kenneth Walker III. If anything happens to Walker, the Seahawks will be bereft in the backfield. Also, blindside tackle Charles Cross did not practice Wednesday with a foot injury. This looms as a problem for Darnold.

The conditions will be more favorable for the Rams than they were in Chicago, where players put cayenne pepper in their spikes to help stay warm.

Low 40s, still winds, dry — a perfect recipe for Nacua, Stafford, and Co. to pull off the minor outright upset.

Rams 24-20.

Patriots (-4.5) over BRONCOS | Under 42.5

The most interesting man in the NFL is a guy who didn’t throw a pass all season.

Jarrett Stidham didn’t throw a pass in the 2024 season, either, and now here he is, the starting quarterback for the Broncos in Sunday’s AFC Championship game. That was the result of the stunning news that Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle on the final drive of the Broncos’ victory over the Bills.

The names Nick Foles, Jeff Hostetler, and even Earl Morrall immediately came to mind as backup quarterbacks who led their teams to Super Bowl championships. Are they proof enough that this can be done?

Or is this supposed to go how it did for the likes of Joe Webb, Connor Cook, and Taylor Heinicke, the past three quarterbacks to start a playoff game after not having started one in the regular season?

All three of them lost by an average total of 11.7 points.

Betting on the NFL?

The Broncos opened as 1.5-point favorites against the Patriots before news broke of the Nix injury. The line flipped in a big way, with New England moving to -5.5 before some buyback on Denver brought it back to 4.5.

The numerical gymnastics prompted handicappers to wonder just how much of a difference there is between Nix, basically a safe game manager with some scrambling skills, and Stidham, who’s somewhat of an unknown commodity.

Those looking to back the Broncos are telling themselves that the dropoff isn’t as large as the line shift. They’re saying (hoping?) that Sean Payton will get Stidham to a point where he can contribute enough and avoid the big mistakes, and that the Broncos’ highly rated defense can do the rest to beat the Patriots or at least cover the number.

People touting the Patriots are channeling Ron Washington from “Moneyball” — saying it’s “incredibly hard” to step in as a starting quarterback in the playoffs after having not played a down in anger for two years. They’ll also point to the past two weeks, when New England’s attacking defense sacked Justin Herbert six times in a 16-3 victory and intercepted C.J. Stroud four times, with three sacks, in a 28-16 win.

It would be helpful for Stidham if WRs Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) could make it back after exiting the Bills game with injuries. If not, this Denver offense will be rather thin.

Their defense is intact, but got worked over by Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen threw three touchdown passes and didn’t shy away from going after Patrick Surtain II, and James Cook III ran for 117 yards.

A couple of reckless decisions by Allen and a few controversial calls, and we wouldn’t even be talking about Stidham this week.

According to the Action Network’s Abrams, the Broncos are the biggest home underdogs in a conference championship since the 1970 merger. He reports that home ’dogs of four-plus points are 9-0 against the spread in the past 50 years in the playoffs (most recently the Panthers covering vs. the Rams in this year’s wild-card round).

I respect that last trend, but I believe the line change was warranted, that Stidham will struggle and the Patriots will prevail rather comfortably. Also note that Drake Maye is 12-0 SU and 10-2 against the spread as a favorite of three points or more in his career.

Patriots 26-13.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Rams (Locks 8-12 in 2025-26).

LAST WEEK: 4-4 (3-1 sides, 1-3 Over/Unders).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.