Live from the world’s most famous arena, it’s UFC 322.
Perhaps the best card of the year, the UFC returns to Madison Square Garden for 14 fights, all of which have massive implications.
Two title fights, loads of contenders, and a few prospects are sprinkled in.
Half of the fights on the card are expected to end inside the distance.
UFC 322 begins at 6 p.m. ET on the ESPNNEWS channel before switching over to pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 322 predictions
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
A title-holder is rarely an underdog in their first defense. It is even more obscure to see a fighter come in at a new weight class, where he is fighting for the first time, and immediately be the favorite in the bout.
But that’s where we find Islam Makhachev as he comes up in weight to fight at 170 pounds to fight Jack Della Maddalena,
Maddalena is a massive underdog here, as high as +230 at the time of writing.
Can he flip the script at Madison Square Garden? It will start with his ability to stop the takedowns, or if he is taken down, whether he can get up.
Della Maddalena trains with Craig Jones, who famously survived bad positions with his “just get up” strategy.
If Makhachev gets Maddalena in a bad position, I have a tough time believing that he won’t find a submission or TKO via ground and pound, perhaps from a crucifix position.
Maddalena will win the striking exchanges here, and Makhachev is willing, perhaps too willing, to strike with his opponents.
But I’m taking the favorite here to win this one early. Maddalena isn’t going to be able to escape bad positions as we’ve seen him do many times against lesser competition.
Maddalena has the edge in striking, but Makhachev is arguably the best grappler in the UFC, regardless of weight class.
THE PLAY: Makhachev by submission or KO/TKO (+125. BetMGM)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili
Zhang Weili moves up in weight and is the betting underdog against arguably the best fighter in women’s history, certainly the best flyweight women’s fighter.
Where I get worried for Shevchenko is that, as she’s gotten older, she’s fought on increasingly thinner margins.
Shevchenko lost to Alexa Grasso by submission, had a split decision draw with her right after, and then won the next fight by decision, where she got eight takedowns.
To be clear, I do not see Shevchenko out-grappling Weili.
Shevchenko barely beat Tailia Santos by split decision in 2022, and more recently won a very close decision against Manon Fiorot.
Weili doesn’t really get out-grappled. And I view her as having the upside in terms of striking.
This is why I am taking the underdog.
Weili will be the new flyweight champion as she gives Shevchenko a tough night in the striking and won’t have a size disadvantage in the grappling.
Feel free to snag a parlay over significant strikes between these two fighters, in particular, Weili over 68.5 significant strikes, and up to 100 significant strikes, a feat she has accomplished in two of her last three five-round bouts.
THE PLAY: Zhang Weili ML (+114, DraftKings)
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UFC 322 full card picks
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev: Makhachev by submission or KO/TKO (+125. BetMGM)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili: Zhang Weili ML (+114, DraftKings)
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales: Brady by submission (+450, ESPN BET)
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates: Prates over .5 takedown (+400, DraftKings)
Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint Denis: Over 1.5 total takedowns (-132, BetRivers)
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira: Double chance: Nickal by submission or decision (+110, ESPN BET)
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues: Rodrigues inside the distance (+130, Caesars Sportsbook)
Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez: Blanchfield by submission (+600, DraftKings)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cody Haddon: Haddon ML (+143, BetRivers)
Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert: Either fight by submission (+200, DraftKings)
Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal: Mariscal by decision (+350, BetMGM)
Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline: Pass
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Eric McConico: Susurkaev by KO/TKO in over .5 rounds (+105, DraftKings)
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Matheus Camilo: Camilo ML (-165, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
