UConn has been one of the college football season’s brightest spots.
Jim Mora Jr. has the Huskies on the brink of a nine-win regular season for the first time since 2007. Plus, senior quarterback Joe Fagnano has thrown for 25 touchdowns without a single interception, which is incomprehensible.
The Huskies host Air Force on Saturday as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 64.5 points.
Initially, I thought the point spread was too high because UConn has been prone to come out flat following big wins. Connecticut just defeated Duke, 37-34, as a 9.5-point home underdog. Nevertheless, respected bettors have backed the Huskies, so that gives me pause.
Thus, I am focusing instead on the total. Each offense’s strength seems to be the opposing defense’s weakness.
The Falcons rank 135th out of 136 FBS teams in defensive efficiency. Specifically, they rank 131st against the pass, which is exactly how UConn attacks teams with an offense that ranks 35th in efficiency.
Meanwhile, Air Force has an explosive offense that is much more evolved than the conventional triple-option. Since sophomore QB Liam Szarka took over starting duties, the Falcons can threaten defenses with the pass.
Their bread and butter remains the ground game, but the mere threat of the deep pass does keep defenses honest more than previous seasons. UConn ranks 121st in expected points added (EPA) against the run, so the Falcons should have a field day.
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Air Force has been involved in some low-scoring games recently, mostly because of the shaky offenses they have faced: Wyoming, Navy and San Jose State. The Huskies will be much more difficult to contain, given their aerial attack ranks 44th in EPA.
I have a 77-62-2 against the spread record in this Post sports section and my next play is Air Force/UConn over 64.5 points (-110, FanDuel).
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Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
