The Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs will close out Week 8 of the NFL season on “Monday Night Football” at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have been rolling lately with back-to-back huge wins, and the Commanders are reeling after back-to-back losses and the loss of their best player.
Those factors combined have pushed this spread to -10.5 for the Chiefs ahead of Monday’s primetime game.
Commanders vs. Chiefs odds, prediction
The injury to Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels may have dampened the excitement for one side of this matchup, but there’s plenty to be excited about on the Chiefs’ side of things.
After a slow start through three games, Patrick Mahomes and the offense are back to form. The two-time MVP has 11 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns over the past four games, and their three wins in that span have been by a margin of 17 points against the Ravens, 13 points against the Lions, and 31 points against the Raiders.
Mahomes has all of his receivers healthy and available now that Rashee Rice has returned to the field. Xavier Worthy, who is always a threat for a huge play, seems to be getting healthy as well and was a full participant at practice as he nurses an ankle and shoulder injury.
The Chiefs won’t have lineman Josh Simmons, who remains away from the team for a family matter and Trey Smith is doubtful with back spasms, but this team has weathered every challenge so far this season. I expect the Chiefs to keep rolling and take advantage of the Commanders’ defense through the air.
Betting on the NFL?
Entering the week, Washington’s passing defense ranked at or near the bottom in a number of categories. They allow the most passing yards gained per completion in the NFL (13.0) and the eighth-most passing yards gained per game (238.3).
Their defense hasn’t been able to stop the run either. The Commanders rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (126.0) and the defense has given up 400-plus total yards three times in seven games this season. They will be catching the Chiefs as they are hitting their stride and it could end up being a long night for the Washington defense.
The Chiefs are beating teams by an average of 14.5 points at home — slightly inflated after the Raiders blowout — but I have no interest in betting them to cover a double-digit spread. I do think we’ll see another big game from Mahomes, though.
He’s averaging 282.8 passing yards per game over his past four games, but his prop is listed as low as 271.5. He has topped that number twice in that four-game span and came just two yards short of that mark against the Ravens.
I expect him to carve up the Commanders Monday night and hit the over on this prop.
The Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 271.5 passing yards (-115, ESPN BET)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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