The NBA regular season is right around the corner, and the chances to find some value on certain markets are dwindling.
One of the markets is the regular season made 3-pointer leader. As of this writing, Warriors legend Stephen Curry is the odds-on favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to make the most 3-pointers this season.
The NBA’s all-time leader in made 3s has led the league in triples eight times in his 16-year career, so it only makes sense that he would do it yet again, right?
Not so fast.
Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards is actually the reigning 3-point champion, and he’s being priced at +450, well behind Curry at -140. He edged out Malik Beasley (319) and Curry (311) with 320 made 3s, a jump of 130 made 3s from his previous season.
No other player reached 300 treys last season, and Beasley, as of this writing, hasn’t been signed to an NBA team after he was investigated for allegations of illegal sports betting activity.
It was an impressive feat for Edwards, who was intentional about upping his 3-point attempts from 6.7 per game in 2023-24 to 10.3 last season. His accuracy was way up, too, jumping to 39.5 percent from 35.7 percent the previous season.
The Wolves are essentially bringing back their same team, which is a big reason why I’m eyeing Edwards this season.
He led the team in usage rate (31.4), which also ranked eighth in the NBA. The Timberwolves didn’t have another true ball handler on their team last season outside of Julius Randle, and they didn’t address that flaw in the offseason.
Betting on the NBA?
It seems like the Timberwolves are perfectly fine with Edwards dominating the ball again this season and taking as many 3s as he wants within the offense.
Edwards’ ascent isn’t the only reason I think this bet has value. It’s also a fade on Curry. Being on the opposite side of Steph Curry in a 3-point shooting market is surely uncomfortable, but I think it’s worthwhile.
Curry is 37 years old and will be 38 in March of next year. His season ended unceremoniously in the playoffs, coincidentally against the Timberwolves, after he suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain.
It’s not the first time Curry has had to deal with injuries in his career, and if the Warriors want to maximize their chances to go deep in the playoffs, they’ll look for opportunities to rest him this season. Curry played 70 games last season, but he only needs to play 65 to be eligible for NBA awards.
Lastly, the numbers here just don’t add up to me. Based on the odds, Curry’s chances to lead the league in made 3s translate to roughly 58 percent. Edwards’ odds translate to about 18 percent. I think this line is mispriced based on what we saw last season.
I’ll gladly bet Edwards to retain the mantle as the league’s top 3-point shooter.
The Pick: Anthony Edwards Most Made 3-pointers (+450, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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