The National League Divisional Series portion of the postseason program could be over before it ever really got started.
The No. 1 seed Brewers have run rampant against the Cubs, outscoring Chicago 16-6 to win the first two games of the best-of-5 series.
Chicago’s starting pitchers, Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, logged a combined 3 ⅓ innings in Games 1 and 2, allowing 10 runs (six earned) in that small sample.
The Brewers are -750 favorites at FanDuel to advance to the NLCS for the first time since 2018.
The other matchup in the National League has taken a different route to get to the same result after two games.
The Dodgers are up 2-0 in the best-of-5 series, but both games hung in the balance. The Dodgers erased a 3-0 deficit in a 5-3 win in Game 1, and then Los Angeles held off a late surge from Philadelphia in a 4-3 victory in Game 2.
A clutch home run by Teoscar Hernandez and a perfectly executed wheel play by the Dodgers’ infield in the ninth inning of Game 2 are the difference in this series.
What is interesting is that the Phillies are being offered at a notably longer price to come back against the Dodgers compared to the Cubs, even though Philadelphia has looked better in this round.
The Phillies are +860 to come back and win the series, which equates to a 10.4 percent chance when you convert the odds to implied probability. Chicago’s +530 price correlates to a 15.8 percent chance of winning.
You can see the logic behind Chicago being the shorter price of the two 0-2 teams in the series markets. The Phillies are going on the road, they’re playing the defending champs and World Series favorites, and their Game 3 starter, Aaron Nola, struggled this season.
Chicago, meanwhile, is set to host Games 3 and 4, and they are playing a team that the betting market has been skeptical of all season, for whatever reason.
However, I would suggest that it’s actually Philadelphia that has the better chance of paying off on a bet at this juncture, especially when you compare the prices.
Coming into the playoffs, the Cubs had to fend off questions about the quality of their starting rotation. Chicago has yet to prove those skeptics wrong, and now we’ll get into the back-end of a shaky staff, which doesn’t bode well given the form of Milwaukee’s balanced lineup.
Betting on Baseball?
And even if Jameson Taillon is able to propel the Cubs to a win in Game 3, the options behind him aren’t pretty. Perhaps Chicago’s offense can take over, but the path back for the Cubbies seems daunting.
The Phillies have their own concerns in the starting pitching department thanks to Nola’s injury-riddled season, but they do have a backup plan with Ranger Suarez ready to take the ball from the veteran right-hander.
As poor as Nola’s season-long numbers were, he did end the season on a high note, and he will not be asked to carry the mail all night, which should allow him to empty the tank before passing the baton.
Nola and Suarez are also tested playoff performers, which is something to note considering the stakes and the venue on Wednesday night.
Nola’s counterpart on Wednesday, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has been superb this season, but he’s got a really tough lineup to deal with. It’s not out of the question that the Phillies get to him.
And should Philadelphia find a way to steal Game 3 as a +144 underdog, the path can really open up from there with the Dodgers turning to the electric-but-erratic Tyler Glasnow in Game 4.
If you squint (and pray), you can see a path for Philadelphia, which finished with the second-best record in the National League, to get back into this thing.
It’s much harder to make the same argument for the Cubs.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
