Odds, picks, best bets for Week 2 clash

After eking out a backdoor cover with Nevada (+43.5) against Penn State in Week 1 of our Ugly Underdog series, we turn our attention to “The Loveliest Village on the Plains” for a showdown between Ball State and Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It should be a bloodbath.

As usual, teams in the SEC are sucking up a lot of the oxygen after Week 1.

There has been plenty said about Arch Manning and Texas’ disappointing showing against Ohio State, and seemingly, all of Tuscaloosa wants Kalen DeBoer fired after Alabama’s dreadful loss to Florida State.

Meanwhile, plenty of praise has been heaped on Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers for a clinical victory at Clemson in primetime, which is a nice change of pace for the good folks in Baton Rouge after their beloved Bayou Bengals lost their last three season openers.

But one team that is flying under the radar after a stellar showing in Week 1 is the Auburn Tigers. 

Auburn was a polarizing team coming into 2025.

The believers thought that Hugh Freeze’s recruiting chops would pay off this year. Auburn has blue-chippers everywhere you look, but the talent went unrecognized in an unfortunate, but still disappointing, 5-7 campaign last year.

The skeptics believed that Auburn was still too raw and was counting too much on promise rather than established star power in the juggernaut SEC.

Nobody encapsulated that more than quarterback Jackson Arnold, a former Gatorade National Player of the Year in high school who transferred from Oklahoma after a pedestrian start to his college career.

Freeze and Auburn hoped that they could tap into Arnold’s potential, but if the 20-year-old couldn’t figure it out, things would go south in a hurry for War Eagle and the head coach’s seat would quickly get hot.

The early returns on Arnold and Auburn were splendid.

Priced as a short favorite traveling to Baylor in Week 1, the Tigers rolled to a 38-24 victory behind a terrific performance from Arnold.

The dual-threat QB only threw for 108 yards, but he protected the football and added 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground.

The Tigers ran for more than 300 yards against the Bears, who were a trendy pick to win the Big 12 all summer long.

Betting on College Football?

It was a statement game from Auburn, though it did get lost in the shuffle thanks to the headline-grabbing results, both good and bad, from their SEC comrades.

The Tigers will try and take another step forward Saturday against Ball State, who just may be the worst team in the FBS.

Like many teams in the MAC, things have gone up, down and all around for Ball State over the last decade.

Recently, things have soured in Muncie, as the Cardinals are in rebuild mode after a 3-9 campaign in 2024. That was enough to end the Mike Neu Era after eight years.

Mike Uremovich took over the gig after a successful spell at Butler, and he’s got a lot of work to do to get the Cardinals heading back in the right direction.

A 31-0 loss to Purdue in Week 1 was not encouraging, and in all likelihood, this Saturday’s result on the Plains will look even worse.

But that’s OK. 

This handicap is not about Ball State showing up and sticking with Auburn. Instead, it’s about the Tigers taking their foot off the pedal in one of many letdown spots on the Week 2 slate.

Freeze, Arnold and Auburn were under heaps of pressure going to Baylor in Week 1.

A loss to the Bears would have had a lot of folks calling for a change at head coach and questioning whether Arnold could cut it.

The win brought with it a massive sigh of relief, and that hopefully will lead to a less-than-inspired effort from Auburn against one of the worst teams you’ll watch this season.

PICK: Ball State +42.5 (-110, BetMGM)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.