A terrifying new study has predicted just how many people in Europe will die from climate change by the end of the century.
In total, 5.8 million Europeans will be killed by excess heat between 2015 and 2099, scientists at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine predict.
However, the experts warn that their study doesn’t include the effects of catastrophic weather events caused by climate change, such as wildfires and tropical storms – so the actual total will be even higher.
While the team admit that rising temperatures will stop people dying of the cold, overall, the rise in heat deaths will outweigh fewer cold deaths.
Barcelona will see the highest temperature-related death toll by the end of the century, they say, followed by Rome, Napes and Madrid.
‘Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,’ said lead author Dr Pierre Masselot.
‘This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire.
‘By following a more sustainable pathway, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century.’
A terrifying new study reveals how many people in Europe will die from climate change by the end of the century (file photo)
According to the researchers, some people think that rising temperatures due to global warming will mean fewer people will die of the cold.
This has created the assumption that climate change is ‘beneficial’ in that it will result in a ‘net decrease’ in temperature-related deaths.
In other words, the theory agrees that a certain number of people will die of heat, but a greater number of people who would otherwise have died of the cold will be saved.
However, the new study shows that this theory – which is often cited in opposition to ‘vital mitigation policies’ – is not true, at least in Europe.
‘The increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios,’ the experts say in their paper, published in Nature Medicine.
For the new study, Dr Masselot and colleagues analysed temperature and mortality data to predict future temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities between 2015 and 2099.
For each city, the researchers worked out a ‘net’ figure – the amount of deaths caused by heat minus deaths ‘saved’ from the cold.
Under a scenario where there’s high greenhouse gas emissions (where CO2 emissions double by 2100) and no adaption to heat there will be a total of 5,825,746 excess deaths in Europe due to heat, they found.
Heat-related deaths include heat stress and severe dehydration, while cold-related deaths include hypothermia and frostbite. Pictured, heat in Rome in July 2023
The researchers say: ‘t. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality’. Pictured, heatwave in Warsaw, Poland August 17, 2024
However, 3,480,336 deaths due to the cold will be avoided, giving an overall ‘net’ mortality rate in Europe by 2099 of 2,345,410.
Researchers say the most vulnerable areas of Europe to heat deaths will be further south – namely the Mediterranean region and the Balkans.
The European city with the highest temperature-related death toll by the end of the century will be Barcelona – at 246,082.
Next will be Rome with 147,738, followed by Naples (147,248), Madrid (129,716), Milan (110,131) and Athens (87,523).
On the other hand, most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries, such as London, Copenhagen and Stockholm will see a ‘net decrease’ in deaths – meaning more people will be ‘saved’ from the cold than those killed by the heat.
For example, in London 75,864 people will be killed by the heat but 103,320 will be saved from the cold – an overall net decrease of -27,455.
‘London and the UK generally tends to have high vulnerability to cold, and also a lower exposure to heat,’ Dr Pierre Masselot told MailOnline.
‘In our model, this translates by a slight decrease of deaths in future climate.’
These graphs plot net changes in temperature-related excess death rates from 2015 to 2099 under no adaptation to heat for three SSP scenarios across 854 cities
The new study focuses on daily mean temperature and does not account for specific weather events that could modify the estimated death toll – such as extreme nighttime temperatures and humidity conditions
However, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across Europe, the study found.
Overall, the study shows that even when taking cold-related deaths into account, 2.3 million Europeans will perish due to the heat by 2099.
It also focuses on daily mean temperature and does not account for specific weather events that could modify the estimated death toll.
So the total number of European climate change deaths would likely be bigger once it includes events such as climate induced flooding and wildfires.
It’s worth noting the study does not look at the global picture, only Europe.
‘Our study, based on a comprehensive assessment of 854 European cities, provides clear evidence that net mortality will increase even under the mildest climate change scenario,’ the team conclude in their paper.
‘This demonstrates the potential health benefits linked with the implementation of stringent mitigation strategies to strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as adaptation strategies aimed at the most vulnerable countries and population groups.’
Carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect: A primer
The greenhouse effect is the reason our planet is getting too hot to live on.
CO2 released by human activity is accumulating as an ‘insulating blanket’ around the Earth, trapping more of the sun’s heat in our atmosphere.
Without the natural greenhouse effect, heat would pass outwards from the Earth’s surface into space – making it too cold to live. But emissions of gases such as CO2 and methane push the greenhouse effect too far – acting as a blanket that traps heat
CO2 – and other greenhouse gases – are emitted by actions such as burning fossil fuels like coal for energy, burning forests to make way for livestock and
Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions – another greenhouse gas.
Meanwhile, fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases.
Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23,000 times greater than CO2.
Sources: European Commission/BGS/NASA
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]
