It could come down to the final day to determine which team wins the American League East.
Buoyed by a new ownership group led by private equity billionaire David Rubenstein, the Baltimore Orioles seek their 11th divisional title while repeating as back-to-back winners for the first time since 1974.
Standing in their way is a familiar foe, the New York Yankees, who have won the most divisional titles (20).
With both clubs separated by just a half-game in the standings, we’ll explore which team has the inside track to get over the line.
Orioles schedule analysis
Given how tight this race is, it feels like there’s a different leader in the clubhouse almost every day.
On Tuesday night, the Orioles picked up a game in the standings with a 5-3 win over the Red Sox.
Baltimore led wire-to-wire thanks to a Cedric Mullins solo home run in the top of the first to take a 1-0 lead. But Mullins wasn’t done. He later added a two-run home run in the third inning.
The victory helped snap a three-game losing streak for the Orioles, who have played .500 ball in their last 10 games.
Baltimore will wrap up the series in Boston on Wednesday night before continuing its road trip to Detroit over the weekend. The Orioles will face the Tigers again when they return to Camden Yards for a six-game homestand that begins with a series against the Giants.
Their final six games of the regular season will be on the road against the Yankees and Twins.
Yankees schedule analysis
The Yankees, who will look to bounce back from a 5-0 home loss to the Royals on Tuesday, are 4-6 over in their last 10 games with only one series win in their last four. Even more concerning is those three series defeats came against teams with losing records.
The Yankees were on a tear earlier in the season, posting a 50-22 mark through mid-June. Since then, they’re just 33-40.
They will play one more game against the Royals on Wednesday night and then welcome Boston in for a four-game series.
They’ll then play six games on the road against the Mariners and Athletics before returning home to face the Orioles and Pirates to close out the regular season.
AL East best bet
Baltimore’s upcoming stretch of nine games could be key to picking the division winner. Six of those games are at home against the Tigers and Giants, teams who are quickly falling out of the wild-card race.
If Baltimore can take a lead in the division heading into the series against the Yankees, it’ll have a good chance to come out on top.
The Yankees are 4-6 against Baltimore and 4-5 against Boston this season. Although the Red Sox are four games out of the wild card, their deeply-rooted rivalry against the Yankees suggests they won’t be handing out any freebies.
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With just a half-game lead, the Yankees’ divisional odds at -175 suggest an implied probability of 63.64 percent. That number is simply too high considering how tight the race is.
I’d estimate Baltimore’s win probability closer to 45 percent or +122 odds, placing much better value on FanDuel’s odds of +135.
Best bet: Orioles to win AL East (+135, FanDuel)
[Notigroup Newsroom in collaboration with other media outlets, with information from the following sources]