Yankees vs. Rays odds, prediction, pick: Aaron Judge’s rude welcome

After a tough loss for the Yankees, the Bombers face off against Rays super-prospect Shane Baz. MLB Pipeline has Baz ranked as the 12th best prospect in all of baseball.

In only two starts this season, Baz has been a roller coaster. He struggled in his return from injury against the Twins, but followed that up with a dominant effort opposite the lowly Orioles.

The mixed bag makes it difficult to predict how the youngster Baz will fare against the Yankees’ righty-heavy lineup.

The Yankees have jumped out to a hot start, but many are expecting some regression from their unbelievable 50-18 record.

Don’t expect that to start tonight against Baz in his sixth career start, though.

Yankees vs. Rays odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYY -1.5 (+125) vs. TB +1.5 (-150)

Moneyline: NYY (-145) vs. TB (+120)

Total: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)

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Yankees vs. Rays probable pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 2.72) vs. Shane Baz (0-1, 5.40)

Yankees vs. Rays prediction

The Yankees surprisingly hit right-handed pitchers better than lefties, despite the Yankees lineup being extremely righty-heavy.

The Yankees have a .251 average against righties, which is slightly higher than the .238 they are showing against lefties. Furthermore, they are striking out nearly 4% less against righties.

MVP favorite Aaron Judge has been particularly dominant. His robust .339 AVG, 19 home runs, and 1.135 OPS in 174 at-bats suggest he might not be from this planet. He is +240 to go yard tonight on FanDuel Sportsbook and is a fine bet to do so.

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On the other end, the Yankees will send out Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched well this season. Montgomery has won three of his last four outings while tossing five consecutive quality starts. Overall, the Yankees are 5-0 in each of Montgomery’s last five starts.

Furthermore, Montgomery has blossomed into a very solid ground ball pitcher. He averages the 13th-most ground ball outs per game (6.85) and seventh-most ground balls per inning (1.22).

Historically, Tropicana Field is a pitcher’s paradise allowing very few home runs. However, this season has not shown it to be the case. Tropicana Field is averaging the 15th most home runs in baseball (.957 per game) this season, according to ESPN.

The Yankees are the bet for tonight’s game in St. Petersburg with the unknown that Shane Baz brings the Rays. He is a wonderful prospect and should have a successful career in Tampa Bay, but this maybe too much too soon for the young stud.