--- title: "HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group face online betting market predictions of potential failure" url: https://noti.group/hsbc-and-lloyds-banking-group-face-online-betting-market-predictions/ language: en publisher: "Noti Group" section: "Business" published: 2026-10-03T08:00:53.000Z updated: 2026-10-03T13:53:01.909Z id: 5d9cc7fb-8aa8-4e69-b9b1-7c5e5c551c16 source: "The Guardian Business https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/03/uk-polymarket-hsbc-lloyds-failures-banks" attribution: "Link to https://noti.group/hsbc-and-lloyds-banking-group-face-online-betting-market-predictions/ and name Noti Group when you quote or summarize this story." --- # HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group face online betting market predictions of potential failure The online prediction market Polymarket has allowed users to place bets on several major banks including HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group. The online prediction market Polymarket has been allowing users to place bets on whether several major banks will fail by the end of this year, including HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group. These bets have significant financial implications, with thousands of dollars worth of positions being taken by users. The total value of these wagers amounts to $77,507, or approximately £58,530. This is a substantial sum that could potentially be lost if the banks in question do experience financial difficulties. Regulators around the world are taking notice of Polymarket's activities, with international cooperation underway to address concerns about the impact on market integrity. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has confirmed it is working with other regulators to tackle this issue. The scope of Polymarket's operations is vast, allowing users from over 150 countries to participate in these speculative bets. However, certain groups such as residents from the UK, US, Canada and EU are barred from betting on its offshore platform. Growing concerns over insider trading and market manipulation on Polymarket have raised the stakes for the banking industry. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse in 2023 serves as a stark reminder of the risks posed by social media-fuelled bank runs, where customers rapidly withdraw cash from banks under speculative pressure. Bobby Dean, a member of the Treasury committee and Liberal Democrat MP, believes UK authorities should intervene to address these concerns. According to Dean, Polymarket's poor track record in preventing insider trading and bad actors placing bets on its platform makes it vulnerable to exploitation that can exacerbate shifts in market sentiment. Dean warns that if bank-related activity grows on the platform and a particular market escalates rapidly, it could trigger another wave of bank runs. The debate over prediction markets has reached new heights as Polymarket allows users to bet on whether major UK banks will fail. Polymarket's chief legal officer Neal Kumar argues that the platform is simply providing a democratic alternative to restricted markets, giving more people access to information that was previously only available to elite traders and institutions. According to Kumar, the data used in these markets is already publicly available, so users shouldn't need special connections or credentials to participate. By simplifying complex financial questions, Polymarket claims it's helping combat disinformation and providing a valuable source of information for its users. However, some experts warn that these platforms are creating moral hazards, encouraging people to engage in corrupt activities to manipulate the outcome of contracts. This has raised concerns about market manipulation and insider trading risks. Academics have also pointed out that prediction markets can be vulnerable to abuse due to limited identity verification on DLT-based platforms like Polymarket, where users may not be who they claim to be. Polymarket's platform is built on blockchain technology, allowing users to create anonymous accounts linked to crypto wallets that can be publicly tracked but remain difficult to associate with an individual identity. The international nature of Polymarket's markets means that users from restricted countries can use virtual private networks (VPNs) to access the platform, despite violating its terms of service. This has raised concerns about the ability to regulate and monitor user activity on the site. Regulatory bodies have highlighted instances where Polymarket users appear to have exploited their access to sensitive information for financial gain. For example, several newly created wallets reportedly generated $1.2m in profits shortly before the US-Israel strike on Iran in February, while a US soldier was charged with using classified information to place bets ahead of the capture of Venezuela's leader, Nicolás Maduro. These incidents have led to increased scrutiny of Polymarket and its potential vulnerabilities, with regulatory bodies engaging regularly with companies to address emerging risks. Despite these concerns, Lloyds and HSBC declined to comment on the matter, while the Treasury did not respond to requests for comment. --- Source: [The Guardian Business](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/03/uk-polymarket-hsbc-lloyds-failures-banks) Published by Noti Group: https://noti.group/hsbc-and-lloyds-banking-group-face-online-betting-market-predictions/