Covid UK: R-rate drops AGAIN but app suggests outbreak not shrinking

Britain’s Covid R rate may have fallen to its lowest ever rate of 0.6, No10’s scientific advisers claimed today as an array of official data confirmed the outbreak is still shrinking.

SAGE predicted the figure – the average number of people each coronavirus patient passes the disease on to – was between 0.6 and 0.9. Last week it stood at 0.7 to 0.9 and two weeks ago they warned it could be above the crucial level of one, suggesting the second wave was stable.

Separate figures from one of the UK’s most respected coronavirus surveillance studies today showed the number of people infected in England has fallen by nearly 50 per cent in the last fortnight.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) experts estimated 481,300 people in the nation would test positive for Covid on any given day in the week to February 12 – the equivalent of one in 115 people. For comparison, the figure was around 850,000 two weeks ago.

And in yet more proof that the second wave is firmly in retreat, hospitals are now also treating fewer coronavirus patients than they were during the darkest days of the first wave last spring. The number of NHS beds taken up by Covid-infected Britons has halved since January to around 20,000.

The catalogue of promising data – combined with Britain’s successful vaccine roll-out – will pile more pressure on Boris Johnson to drastically ease restrictions when he unveils his roadmap back to normality on Monday. Anti-lockdown Tory MPs have urged the PM to scrap economically-crippling measures as quickly as possible.

The Prime Minister has promised to rely on ‘data not dates’ in his blueprint to leaving lockdown, amid hopes the UK may never need another blanket shutdown to contain Covid and that life could be a lot more normal’ by May. Pubs and restaurants will likely be the final parts of the economy allowed to fully reopen under the cautious approach.

But even SAGE scientists – who have offered gloomy predictions throughout the pandemic – have admitted the data is pointing in the right direction. One epidemiologist advising No10 told MPs that ministers should be looking at easing restrictions earlier, if they were truly following the evidence.

But other researchers tracking the UK’s shrinking second wave have flagged it may now no longer be dropping as rapidly as it once was. The King’s College London symptom-tracking app today estimated there were 14,064 new symptomatic infections every day during the week ending February 14 – just 5 per cent down in a week.

In another day of coronavirus news:

• NHS Figures reveal parts of the UK are already jabbing over-50s without underlying conditions… even though some London boroughs have only jabbed 60 per cent of elderly residents;
• Experts say the UK will be ‘a lot more normal’ by May even if Boris Johnson adopts a more cautious roadmap for easing lockdown measures;
• Rishi Sunak is considering extending the furlough scheme until the summer at a cost of at least £10billion, reports suggest;
• Only half of Covid jab appointments are being used up at mass vaccination centre in Manchester;
• Over-40s could get letters inviting them to Covid jabs by the end of March when rollout will be widened beyond top priority groups;
• Government ‘increasingly positive’ Britons will be able to have a foreign break this year;
• Pfizer’s vaccine is 85 per cent effective after one dose and blocks 75 per cent of transmission, Israeli study finds in huge boost to decision to delay doses;
• Sadiq Khan, 50, gets first Covid vaccine after being invited by GP due to his severe asthma. 

Sage scientists said today the R rate was between 0.6 and 0.9 for the UK, and had dropped as low as 0.6 to 0.8 in the East of England, London, and the South East.

The highest rates were in the North East and Yorkshire where they warned it was between 0.7 and 1.0. This suggests the second wave may no longer be shrinking in the region. 

The ONS data showed the total number of infections in England are now at their lowest levels since mid-November, when the second national lockdown was imposed to curb infections.

Estimates for infections in the devolved nations showed there were 24,600 Covid cases in Wales – 1 in 125 people having the virus -, around 17,800 in Northern Ireland – 1 in 105 – and 29,200 in Scotland – 1 in 180. 

The report also revealed that the mutant Kent variant of the virus remains the dominant strain in every region of England, and across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The ONS weekly report is considered a highly reliable estimate of infections in the UK because it can pick up asymptomatic cases and account for Britons who do not want to be tested for fear of having to self-isolate.

Top Sage advisers have warned the UK needs to get its Covid case levels down to just 10,000 infections before Boris Johnson should begin to reopen society.

Amid the promising statistics, however, the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app, also published today, warned the second wave may have started to plateau across the UK.

It added the R rate – measuring the spread of the disease – may have risen to 1 in Yorkshire, the East Midlands and the North East as well as as well as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, suggesting the second wave is no longer shrinking in these areas.

They estimated the areas with the highest infection rates were Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen where 1 in 277 residents was thought to have the virus. They were followed by Greater Manchester, with 1 in 287 and the Liverpool City region with 1 in 337. 

The app relies on daily reports from more than a million Britons on whether they are feeling unwell, and whether they have tested positive for the virus. But it is only able to pick up infections that are symptomatic, and cannot detect those that don’t trigger warning signs – thought to be at least a third of all cases. 

Professor Tim Spector, a top epidemiologist who leads the app, said the fall in infections has begun to ‘plateau’ compared to the last six weeks where it plummeted.

‘This is mainly true in places like Scotland, Wales, and the Midlands compared to London and the East,’ he said. ‘It’s unclear why this is happening, although people relaxing their guard after vaccination or altering behaviour in the cold weather are possible.

‘But it’s encouraging that Covid-related hospital admissions are still falling and much lower than at the peak. With cases still falling in the at-risk age groups and the vaccination roll out continuing there is still reason to be hopeful – but we clearly can’t be complacent.’

The King’s College London scientist also called on the NHS to expand its list of Covid symptoms – high temperature, continuous cough and loss of taste and smell – to ensure that as many cases are detected as possible.

At present, only those suffering the three key warning signs are encouraged to get a test. But mountains of research has shown the virus can trigger many other symptoms in the early stages, including fatigue, diarrhoea and a sore or white tongue.

‘We are pushing for the list to be expanded to help us pick up more cases and drive down the number of cases,’ he said. ‘It’s also important for any new variants that may cause different symptoms. For us, the message for the public is clear: If you’re feeling newly unwell, it could be Covid and you should get a test.’

It comes as data from the Department of Health shows the number of Covid patients in hospital has nearly halved since January. Almost 40,000 beds were taken up by the infected during the peak of the second wave last month. 

And the number of patients on ventilation beds has also plunged by 36 per cent in a month. 

Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, told The Times that the country was at a ‘critical juncture’, with hospital staff ‘exhausted.

She urged Boris Johnson to wait for ‘a return to more normal levels of NHS capacity’ before lifting restrictions.

She said: ‘Lessons must be learnt from the past year if this is to be the last national lockdown.’ 

Some 2,614 patients requiring intensive care on mechanical ventilation beds on Wednesday, compared to 4,077 on January 25. 

Public Health England’s data yesterday showed the infection rate among children aged 10 to 19 was at 86.2 per 100,000 in the second week of February, the latest available.

This is below every week since the seven-day spell ending September 26, when it was 53.4 per 100,000. 

Public Health England’s medical director Yvonne Doyle said: ‘Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling. 

‘The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning. 

‘This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures. Although it is difficult, we must continue to stay home and protect lives.’ 

Covid cases also dropped in every age group and plunged by 38 per cent among the over-80s – who are most at risk of being hospitalised or dying if they catch the virus – to 129.6 per 100,000.

The infection rate was highest in 30 to 39-year-olds (192.5 per 100,000), followed by 20 to 29-year-olds (173.4 per 100,000) and 40 to 49-year-olds (162.9 per 100,000).